Global sugar production is expected to rise in the 2025–26 season, driven by increased output in India and Brazil due to favorable weather conditions. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), this surge will help offset production declines in the European Union.
In its biannual report, the USDA stated that global sugar production is forecast up 8.6 million tonnes to 189.3 million tonnes with higher production in Brazil and India expected to more than offset lower European Union production. Exports are down with lower shipments expected from the European Union and Thailand. Ending inventories are forecast to rise due primarily to India and China.
According to the USDA, Brazil’s production is forecast to rise by 1.0 million tonnes to a record 44.7 million tonnes, supported by higher sugar yields resulting from favorable weather. The sugar/ethanol production mix is expected to favor ethanol relative to the previous season, falling from 51 percent to 49 percent for sugar and rising from 49 percent to 51 percent for ethanol. Consumption is forecast to fall slightly while exports are up with higher production.
(Source: USDA)
India’s production is estimated to jump over 25 percent to 35.3 million tonnes on favorable weather and increased area. Consumption is anticipated to rise, driven by food service sector growth, while exports and stocks are both up with the increase in supply.
Thailand’s production is projected up 2 percent to 10.3 million tonnes due to increased sugarcane production and cane sugar yield. Consumption continues to rise but at a slower rate due to lower demand from export-oriented food processors. Exports are forecast to drop due to competition from other large exporters such as Brazil while stocks are expected to be flat.
In China, production is estimated to increase by 500,000 tonnes to 11.5 million tonnes, as sugarcane cultivation expands and sugarbeet crops benefit from favorable weather. . Imports are forecast to rise to help fill the gap between supply and demand, despite higher domestic production. Consumption and exports are unchanged. Stocks are forecast up as consumption continues a slow rebound, the USDA report stated.
According to the USDA report, European Union production is forecast to fall 9 percent to 15.0 million tonnes as sugar beet area is expected to be down 10 percent mainly among top producers such as France and Germany. Consumption and ending stocks are relatively unchanged from the prior year. Imports are up with lower production while exports are forecast down.
