Cane farmers in Thailand, the world’s second-largest sugar exporter after Brazil, are increasingly turning to cassava as sugarcane prices fall sharply and disease threatens crops in several regions, according to analyst firm Green Pool, according to Reuters.
Large supplies in Thailand and other major producers pushed global sugar prices to a five-year low last month. With the market under heavy price pressure, many farmers are now considering reducing sugarcane output.
Green Pool, after a recent crop tour in Thailand, reported that the initial government-set cane price for the 2025–26 season is expected to fall by 22% year-on-year to 900 Thai baht ($28.29) per metric ton—a price that farmers say is too low to cover their expenses.
In some parts of the upper northeast, farmers removed crops that were heavily affected by disease earlier this year and replanted the land with cassava. Others said they plan to switch after harvesting their diseased cane later this year or early next year.
As a result, Green Pool now expects Thailand’s 2025–26 sugar output (October to September) to rise only 6% year-on-year to 10.7 million tons. For 2026–27, local sources told the firm that production could fall 7.5% to 9.9 million tons. Green Pool will release its official estimate in January.
“Our team returned with a pessimistic view of the current crop,” said Green Pool CEO Eder Vieito. He added that farmers’ concerns about poor cane prices, better returns from cassava, and ongoing disease risks spell trouble for the next season as well.
This year, parts of Thailand—particularly the northeast—have been hit hard by white leaf disease, a bacterial infection spread by insects or contaminated planting material.
Cassava prices in Thailand have strengthened over the past six months due to higher demand from China and reduced imports from Cambodia following a border closure, Green Pool noted.
The International Sugar Organisation expects the global sugar market to record a 1.63 million-ton surplus this season. However, industry experts warn that the outlook for 2026–27 could be very different if sugar prices remain depressed.
