The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has kept its forecast unchanged for the amount of corn expected to be used for ethanol production in the 2025–26 season, according to its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on January 12. The agency has, however, raised its estimate for the average price of corn during the season, reports Ethanol Producer Magazine.
The USDA’s outlook for the 2025–26 corn season points to higher overall production, increased use for animal feed, lower use for food and industrial purposes, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at a record 7 billion bushels, an increase of 269 million bushels. This rise is based on a yield increase of 0.5 bushel per acre to 186.5 bushels per acre and an expansion of harvested area by 1.3 million acres. Compared to the July 2025 WASDE report, harvested area is up by 4.5 million acres. The USDA said the 2025 corn crop is about 1.7 bushels, or more than 40 million tonnes, higher than the previous record set in 2023.
Total corn use for 2025–26 is projected at 16.4 billion bushels, up 90 million bushels from earlier estimates. Use for feed and related purposes has been increased by 100 million bushels to 6.2 billion, based on recent stock movement data for the September to November period. Use of corn for food, seed and industrial purposes has been slightly reduced, reflecting lower usage in products such as glucose, dextrose and high fructose corn syrup.
The USDA continues to estimate that 5.6 billion bushels of corn will be used for ethanol production in 2025–26, the same level projected in December. The agency also left unchanged its estimate that 5.436 billion bushels were used for ethanol in 2024–25, slightly lower than the 5.489 billion bushels used in the 2023–24 season.
With production rising faster than consumption, corn stocks are expected to increase by 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion bushels by the end of the season. The average price received by corn producers is now projected at $4.10 per bushel, up 10 cents from the previous estimate.
Outside the United States, corn production is also expected to rise, mainly due to higher output in China. The USDA has raised China’s corn production estimate to a record 301.2 million tonnes, based on the latest data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. Ending corn stocks in other countries for 2025–26 are also forecast to increase, largely due to higher reserves in China. Global corn stocks are now estimated at 290.9 million tonnes, an increase of 11.8 million tonnes.
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