The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. ethanol production to increase in 2027, even as it has slightly lowered its outlook for output in 2026, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, reports Ethanol Producer Magazine.
The agency now estimates that fuel ethanol production will average 1.07 million barrels per day in 2026, down from its December forecast of 1.08 million barrels per day. The January report provides the EIA’s first short-term projections for 2027, with ethanol production expected to rise to an average of 1.08 million barrels per day. In 2025, U.S. fuel ethanol production averaged 1.07 million barrels per day.
On a quarterly basis, ethanol output in 2026 is forecast to average 1.06 million barrels per day in the first and second quarters, increase to 1.07 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and rise further to 1.11 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In 2027, production is expected to average 1.07 million barrels per day in the first two quarters, edge up to 1.08 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and reach 1.11 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA kept its estimate for net fuel ethanol imports unchanged, projecting net exports of about 150,000 barrels per day in 2026, a level expected to continue in 2027. Net ethanol exports averaged around 140,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The agency also maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol consumption will average 930,000 barrels per day in 2026. However, it raised its estimate for 2025 consumption to 940,000 barrels per day, up from the earlier projection of 930,000 barrels per day. Ethanol consumption in 2027 is currently expected to average 930,000 barrels per day.
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