The SouthWest Monsoon is crucial for agriculture in India, as farmers rely on the rains for the survival of their crops.
The private weather service SkyMet indicates a 60% likelihood of an inadequate monsoon in 2026.
In an interview with ChiniMandi, AVM G P Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at SkyMet, noted early signs suggesting suboptimal monsoon rainfall in 2026 as El Nino conditions are expected to set in from July 2026.
However, Sharma emphasised that a detailed prediction about the rains is difficult and premature to make since weather systems are inherently dynamic and difficult to predict definitively two months in advance.
Sharma said that the spring barrier could adversely impact the predictions in February and March.
“Skymet has predicted a sub-par monsoon in 2026. But it’s premature to share details of the monsoon forecast,” he said, adding that March-end and the first half of April are ideal for monsoon prediction.
What is a Spring Barrier?
The Spring Barrier is a phenomenon where atmosphere-ocean models show a significant, temporary decline in forecasting skill for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Northern Hemisphere’s spring (March-May).
India experienced a complete El Niño event during the 2023-24 season, resulting in below-average monsoon rainfall.
The 2025 Southwest Monsoon season, spanning from June to September, recorded above-normal rainfall at 108% of the Long Period Average (LPA), translating to approximately 937.2 mm.
This represented two successive years of above-average monsoonal precipitation for India.
