Sugar prices moved up sharply on Friday, with New York futures touching their highest level in one and a half weeks. The rise came after the US Supreme Court struck down tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump, a move that could open the door for Brazil to ship more sugar to the United States. Traders said this could tighten supplies in other parts of the world. A weaker US dollar also supported commodity markets, including sugar, Barchart reported.
Fresh data from Brazil added to the upward push. Industry group Unica reported that sugar production in Brazil’s Centre-South region during the second half of January fell 36 per cent from a year earlier to 5,000 metric tonnes. However, total output for the 2025-26 season through January was slightly higher at 40.24 million metric tonnes, up 0.9 per cent from last year. The share of sugarcane used for sugar production also increased to 50.74 per cent this season from 48.14 per cent a year ago.
Despite Friday’s gains, sugar prices have been under pressure for months. Last week, prices fell to their lowest level in more than five years amid expectations that global supplies will remain high. Analysts at Czarnikow said they expect a global surplus of 3.4 million metric tonnes in the 2026-27 season, following an estimated surplus of 8.3 million tonnes in 2025-26. Green Pool Commodity Specialists projected a surplus of 2.74 million tonnes in 2025-26 and a smaller surplus of 156,000 tonnes in 2026-27. StoneX has forecast a 2.9 million tonne surplus for 2025-26.
In Brazil, consulting firm Safras & Mercado said sugar production in 2026-27 is likely to fall 3.91 per cent to 41.8 million tonnes from an expected 43.5 million tonnes in 2025-26. The firm also expects Brazilian sugar exports to drop 11 per cent year-on-year to 30 million tonnes.
In India, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association reported that sugar production between October 1 and January 15 in the 2025-26 season rose 22 per cent from a year earlier to 15.9 million tonnes. In November, the association raised its full-year production estimate to 31 million tonnes from 30 million tonnes, citing strong monsoon rains. It also reduced the estimate of sugar diverted for ethanol production to 3.4 million tonnes from an earlier projection of 5 million tonnes, a change that could allow more sugar to be exported. India is the world’s second-largest producer of sugar.
The Indian government has also cleared an additional 500,000 tonnes of sugar for export in the 2025-26 season, adding to the 1.5 million tonnes approved earlier. India introduced export limits in 2022-23 after late rains reduced output and tightened domestic supplies.
Thailand is also expected to increase production. The Thai Sugar Millers Corporation has projected that the country’s 2025-26 sugar output will rise 5 per cent from a year earlier to 10.5 million tonnes. Thailand is the world’s third-largest producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
On the global front, the International Sugar Organization has forecast a surplus of 1.625 million tonnes in 2025-26, following a deficit of 2.916 million tonnes in 2024-25. The group expects global sugar production to rise 3.2 per cent to 181.8 million tonnes in 2025-26, driven by higher output in India, Thailand and Pakistan. Czarnikow has also increased its estimate of the 2025-26 global surplus to 8.7 million tonnes.
The United States Department of Agriculture, in its latest report, projected that global sugar production in 2025-26 will rise 4.6 per cent to a record 189.318 million tonnes. Global consumption is expected to increase 1.4 per cent to 177.921 million tonnes. The department said global sugar stocks at the end of the season are likely to fall 2.9 per cent to 41.188 million tonnes. It also forecast record production in Brazil at 44.7 million tonnes, a 25 per cent rise in India to 35.25 million tonnes, and a 2 per cent increase in Thailand to 10.25 million tonnes for the 2025-26 season.
