CME ethanol futures slip; US Gulf remains most competitive for India

The Ethanol futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) softened during the week, reflecting cautious sentiment in the biofuels market.

Data received from the US Grain and BioProducts Council shows week-on-week decline in CME ethanol prices, as given below:

13-Feb-26 17-Feb-26
February: $1.65/gallon February: $1.64/gallon
March: $1.6775/gallon March: $1.655/gallon
April: $1.705/gallon April: $1.685/gallon
May: $1.725/gallon May: $1.705/gallon
June: $1.735/gallon June: $1.715/gallon
July: $1.735/gallon July: $1.715/gallon

Brazilian ethanol continues to maintain a year-on-year premium, with hydrous ethanol trading at $0.628/litre, up almost 12% year on year, while Brazil Anhydrous ethanol is trading at $0.647/litre, up 5.9% year on year.

The industrial Ethanol prices delivered to India are trading at $651.18/MT, down 0.4% week-on-week and 2.5% year-on-year.

The US-origin ethanol remains the most competitive for India, particularly from the Gulf Coast, while Brazilian supplies suggest a significant premium on a delivered basis.

Other prices are given below:

US Gulf – India:

$684.83/MT, up 0.3% week-on-week, down 2.9% year-on-year
(Approx. INR 48–49/litre)

PNW – India:

$754.35/MT, down 0.7% week-on-week, up 0.5% year-on-year
(Approx. INR 53–54/litre)

Brazil – India:

$849.47/MT, down 1.7% week-on-week, up 12.5% year-on-year
(Approx. INR 60–61/litre)

(All prices are indicative.)

According to the data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending 6 February 2026:

  • Ethanol production rose 16.1% to 1.11 million barrels per day (b/d)
  • Equivalent to 46.62 million gallons daily (172.22 million litres daily)
  • Output was 2.6% higher than the same week last year
  • 7% above the three-year average for the week

There was mild softening in CME futures. The US export is priced well compared with Brazil. With global energy markets looking volatile and Brazil still pricing higher year-on-year, US ethanol still has an edge in terms of export competitiveness, especially into price-sensitive markets such as India.

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