Commodities trader Czarnikow has projected a global sugar surplus of 7.5 million tonnes for the 2025-26 season, marking the largest surplus since 2017-18.
According to the latest forecast, global sugar production is estimated to reach 185.9 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season. If this level is achieved it would be the second-highest sugar production on record, tailing shortly after the 2017-2018 season.
India’s sugar output is also set to rebound. Czarnikow expects production in the country to rise to 32 million tonnes in 2025-26 season, contingent on continued favorable monsoon conditions. According to the Czarnikow, this year the monsoon rains came early, bringing plenty of rainfall to help recover water levels of reservoirs in Maharashtra and Karnataka which farmers use for irrigation in the dry post-monsoon period.
Cane crops in the Northern Hemisphere are now entering their peak growth stage, a crucial period that requires adequate rainfall to support healthy development.
This period is also critical for beet crops in the Northern Hemisphere, according to Czarnikow. However, lack of rainfall in northern and western Europe are causing growing concern, as soil moisture has declined to seasonal lows. Czarnikow stated it is closely monitoring weather patterns and will update its forecasts as necessary.
On the demand side, Czarnikow revised its global sugar consumption outlook downward. The firm now anticipates global consumption will reach 178.3 million tonnes in 2026, a decline of 1.1 million tonnes from its previous estimate.
Czarnikow has expressed concern that the rising use of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs, such as Ozempic and Zepbound, could impact global sugar consumption. In 2025 and 2026 this is likely to occur only in the world’s wealthiest countries, where many consumers can afford these drugs.
