Brazil’s 2025-26 sugar season is in good shape despite a slow start to the harvest, and will help build an expected surplus in the global market of 1.53 million metric tonnes (MMT) in 2025-26, Datagro consultancy said on Wednesday.
From October to April, rainfall levels in Brazil’s key sugar-producing center-south (CS) region were near the best in the past five years, improving soil moisture, said Plinio Nastari, Datagro’s president and chief analyst, during the CITI ISO DATAGRO NY Sugar & Ethanol Conference, reported Reuters.
The anticipated surplus follows a global deficit of 4.67 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season. Increased output from India and Thailand is also expected to support a rise in global sugar availability, Nastari added.
Datagro forecasts Brazil’s CS sugar production in 2025-26 to reach 42.04 million tonnes, up from 40.17 million tonnes the previous season. India’s output is projected to grow to 31.6 million tonnes from 26 million tonnes, while Thailand’s production is expected to rise to 11.18 million tonnes from 10.05 million tonnes.
Datagro’s supply outlook aligns with other assessments presented during New York Sugar Week, an annual industry event. On Tuesday, broker StoneX noted that the forecasted production rebound will help keep ICE raw sugar prices in check, according to the Reuters.
Nastari stated that current sugar prices will put pressure on countries with higher production costs, such as certain European producers and India.
