The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its forecast for fuel ethanol production in 2026, while keeping its outlook for ethanol exports unchanged, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on February 10, Ethanol Producer Magazine reported.
The agency now expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.08 million barrels per day in 2026, slightly higher than the 1.07 million barrels per day projected in January. The forecast for 2027 was left unchanged, with production also expected to average 1.08 million barrels per day. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.07 million barrels per day in 2025.
On a quarterly basis, ethanol production in 2026 is projected to average 1.07 million barrels per day in the first quarter before easing to 1.06 million barrels per day in the second quarter. Output is then expected to recover to 1.07 million barrels per day in the third quarter and rise further to 1.11 million barrels per day in the final quarter of the year.
Looking ahead to 2027, production is forecast to average 1.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter, increase to 1.07 million barrels per day in the second quarter, rise to 1.08 million barrels per day in the third quarter and reach 1.11 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The outlook for fuel ethanol trade remained steady. Net imports are expected to average minus 150,000 barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from the previous forecast. Net imports averaged -140,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Fuel ethanol consumption is forecast to remain stable, averaging 930,000 barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027, the same as projected last month. The agency revised its estimate for 2025, now saying ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day, slightly lower than the earlier estimate of 940,000 barrels per day.
