New Delhi: El Nino is likely to return in the second half of 2026, as per major climate models, said private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Friday, reported the Business Standard.
The weather pattern, which leads to warming of ocean surface waters, is expected to gain strength during the middle of the Indian monsoon season and peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter, the agency said.
Skymet Founder and Chairman Jatin Singh said such a development increases the risk of unstable weather, especially across South Asia, and could reduce monsoon rainfall over India.
He said El Niño disrupts weather systems worldwide by altering rainfall patterns and often brings dry conditions to regions such as Australia, Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
Singh added that the Asia-Pacific Climate Centre (APCC), the main climate forecasting body for the region, has raised concerns that drought-linked El Niño conditions could begin to form around July this year.
This could affect the amount of rainfall India receives during the monsoon months from June to September.
Skymet said earlier developing El Niño conditions had affected the Indian monsoon in 2014 and 2018. The 2014 season ended in a drought, while the 2018 monsoon narrowly avoided one.
In 2023, El Niño began in June and lasted for about eleven months, disrupting the monsoon. The impact continued into April 2024, making last year the warmest on record. The prolonged heat affected foodgrain crops, particularly paddy and pulses, leading to lower output and higher food prices, the agency said.
According to Skymet, a developing El Niño is more worrying than a fully formed one, as it has a 60% chance of bringing below-normal rainfall.
Such conditions can delay the start of the monsoon and disturb the timing and spread of rainfall across regions. They can also lead to more frequent and intense heat waves, the agency added.
