Favourable weather conditions in South America and USA have led to an increase in corn production as compared to the consumption demand in 2025-26, says an analyst, reports The Western Producer.
Libin Zhou, agriculture research manager at the London Stock Exchange Group, said strong harvests in the United States and favourable weather across much of South America will push global corn output above demand growth in the 2025–26 season. As a result, global ending stocks are projected to increase by about 26.1 million tonnes after three straight years of decline.
She said global corn production is set to rise by around 69 million tonnes, driven by large crops in the United States, Ukraine and China, along with positive prospects for Brazil. Western and southeastern Europe were the only major regions to report lower production.
Corn prices, which influence values of crops such as barley and wheat, fell by more than 20 per cent between the start of 2025 and mid-year. Prices later recovered due to supply shortages in Europe and strong exports from the United States, but weakened again following favourable weather in South America and a higher U.S. output estimate in the January supply and demand report.
U.S. corn exports have reached record levels, supported by competitive prices, a weaker dollar and ample supplies. Strong demand has come from traditional buyers such as Mexico, Japan and Colombia, along with increased purchases from the European Union, the Middle East and North Africa. Exports from Brazil and Argentina are also expected to rise.
Global demand for corn used as animal feed remains firm, supported by population growth, economic expansion and lower prices. Corn makes up the majority of livestock feed use in the United States and is also widely used in Brazil, the world’s second-largest poultry producer. Demand from the ethanol sector has also increased sharply.
U.S. ethanol exports remain strong, with shipments to Canada rising even as exports to Brazil have slowed in recent years.
In Brazil, the harvest of the first corn crop is beginning, while planting of the second crop is under way. Some areas are facing uneven rainfall, and delays in the soybean harvest may push second-crop corn planting beyond the ideal window, raising the risk of lower yields. However, Brazil’s agriculture agency Conab estimates that farmers will plant a record 56 million acres of corn this year, which is expected to limit production losses.
Conab forecasts Brazil’s corn output at 138.9 million tonnes in 2025–26, slightly below last year’s record but still among the highest on record. Domestic demand is projected at 140 million tonnes, driven largely by rising ethanol use. Corn-based ethanol output is expected to reach 10 billion litres this season, compared with negligible levels a decade ago, and is projected to continue growing in the coming years.
Brazil currently has 24 operating corn ethanol plants, with additional projects approved or under development, mostly in the central-west region. The country is also expected to increase corn exports, particularly to markets such as Iran and Egypt, where it competes with the United States. With ample stocks carried over from last season, Brazil’s exports are forecast to rise to 46.5 million tonnes from 40 million tonnes last year, according to Conab.
Zhou said future corn prices will depend largely on weather conditions in South America and planting decisions in the United States. She expects U.S. farmers to plant between 93.9 million and 95 million acres of corn this year, down from 98.8 million acres last season.
