London: The global sugar market is expected to record a surplus for a second straight season in 2026/27, though the excess supply is likely to be much smaller due to lower production, according to Australia-based sugar and biofuels consultancy Green Pool, reported Reuters.
In its first forecast for the 2026/27 season, Green Pool estimated a surplus of 156,000 metric tons, sharply down from an estimated 2.74 million tons in 2025/26.
Global sugar output in 2026/27 is projected to fall to 195.91 million metric tons from 197.50 million tons in the previous season. The decline is expected to be driven in part by lower production in the European Union.
Green Pool said sugar beet planting in the EU is forecast to fall by 4%, while yields are expected to be close to average. This combination would result in a 6% year-on-year drop in EU sugar output, reducing production by about 1.5 million tons to 13.86 million metric tons.
The analysts said this would push the EU back into a deficit, with production falling short of consumption, after two consecutive seasons of surplus.
Global sugar consumption in 2026/27 is expected to rise by 0.5% to 194.72 million metric tons. However, Green Pool revised down its estimate for sugar consumption in 2025/26 by 466,000 tons to 193.73 million metric tons.
The analysts said sugar demand has continued to underperform expectations, prompting them to lower their outlook for the current season and take a more cautious view for 2026/27.
