Sugar prices fell on Friday, with the March New York world sugar contract (SBH26) closing down by 1.90% at -0.30, and the December London ICE white sugar contract (SWZ25) dropping 0.36% at -1.60. London sugar hit a 4.25-year low, while New York sugar stayed above Tuesday’s three-week low, as expectations of abundant global supplies continued to weigh on the market, reports Nasdaq.
On Monday, BMI Group forecast a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics projected a 4.1 MMT surplus last week. These projections added pressure on prices, which have already been under strain for months due to higher output in Brazil.
Unica reported on Thursday that Brazil’s Center-South region produced 3.137 MMT of sugar in the second half of September, up 10.8% from last year. The share of sugarcane crushed for sugar also rose to 51.17% from 47.73% a year earlier, bringing cumulative production for the 2025/26 season to 33.524 MMT, up 0.8% year-on-year.
In India, a strong monsoon season is expected to boost sugar output and exports, further pressuring prices. The India Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm as of September 30, 8% above normal — the strongest in five years. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories has projected India’s 2025/26 sugar production to rise 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a 17.5% decline to a five-year low of 26.2 MMT in 2024/25, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Sugar trader Sucden recently said India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, but this is unlikely to offset the expected surplus. The company also indicated that Indian mills could export up to 4 MMT of sugar, double earlier expectations.
Thailand’s sugar production outlook is also adding downward pressure on prices. The Thai Sugar Miller Corporation projected that the country’s 2025/26 sugar crop will increase by 5% to 10.5 MMT, following a 14% rise in 2024/25 to 10 MMT, according to the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board.
Earlier last week, New York sugar briefly rose to a two-month high as traders covered short positions following reports of lower sugar content in Brazil’s cane. Unica said the sugar content in Brazil’s Center-South region dropped to 154.58 kg per tonne in early September, down from 160.07 kg last year.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has forecast a global sugar deficit of 231,000 tonnes for 2025/26 — the sixth consecutive year of deficit — compared to a shortfall of 4.88 MMT in 2024/25. ISO expects global sugar production to rise 3.3% to 180.6 MMT, while consumption is set to grow by 0.3% to 180.8 MMT.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its May report, projected global 2025/26 sugar production to reach a record 189.3 MMT, up 4.7% year-on-year, and human consumption to rise 1.4% to 177.9 MMT. The USDA also forecast global ending stocks to increase 7.5% to 41.2 MMT.
According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar output is expected to hit a record 44.7 MMT, India’s production may jump 25% to 35.3 MMT, and Thailand’s output could grow 2% to 10.3 MMT — all pointing to continued supply pressure in the global sugar market.
