Millions of farmers across India rely heavily on monsoon rainfall for their Kharif crops—their primary source of income and livelihood. Early and accurate monsoon forecasts can significantly help them decide what to plant, when, and in what quantity. This crucial support has now become a reality, thanks to a breakthrough in weather forecasting powered by artificial intelligence (AI).
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoAFW) is leveraging AI technology to provide timely monsoon forecasts directly to farmers. In a pioneering public initiative this year, the Ministry sent AI-based monsoon predictions via SMS through the m-Kisan platform to nearly 3.8 crore farmers across 13 states. These forecasts were delivered up to four weeks ahead of the anticipated rains—earlier than ever before. Customized to meet farmers’ specific needs, these AI-generated insights are a vital tool for Kharif crop planning, marking a world-first in targeted AI weather forecast dissemination and positioning the Ministry as a global leader in this space.
During a program review meeting at Krishi Bhavan on September 8, Additional Secretary Dr. Pramod Kumar Meherda and Joint Secretary Shri Sanjay Kumar Agarwal discussed the initiative and its expansion plans with Nobel Laureate and University of Chicago Professor Michael Kremer. Dr. Meherda highlighted, “This program uses AI-based weather forecasting to predict continuous rain spells, helping farmers manage risks and plan activities with confidence. We aim to enhance this initiative further in coming years.”
This monsoon season witnessed an early onset, followed by a 20-day pause in the northward progression of rains. The AI forecasts correctly predicted this mid-season halt, allowing the government to send weekly updates to farmers until steady rains resumed. “With climate change increasing weather unpredictability, accurate forecasts are essential for farmers to adapt,” said Joint Secretary Agarwal.
AI Revolutionizing Weather Forecasting
Since 2022, AI has revolutionized weather forecasting by enabling more precise and customized predictions of complex phenomena like the Indian monsoon weeks in advance. The MoAFW’s adoption of this technology is a significant step toward helping millions of farmers.
The forecasts used were based on a blend of two open-access AI models—Google’s Neural GCM and ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Systems (AIFS)—which have demonstrated superior accuracy in predicting local monsoon onset compared to other forecasts.
Niti Aayog member Professor Ramesh Chand emphasized the importance of farmer-centric weather communication: “This initiative is invaluable because it delivers weather forecasts tailored to farmers, using simple language that aids their decision-making.”
The Ministry collaborated with Development Innovation Lab – India and Precision Development to ensure messages were clear and actionable for farmers.
Nobel Laureate Michael Kremer praised the effort, stating, “This is a monumental achievement by the Ministry of Agriculture, benefiting millions and placing India at the forefront of addressing farmers’ needs in the AI era. The program exemplifies how to prioritize people in technological advancements.”
