International sugar prices have seen sharp movements lately. On Wednesday, the October NY world sugar #11 closed down -0.04 (-0.25%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 closed down -0.80 (-0.17%).
The anticipation of higher production from Brazil and India weighed on the prices. There has been persistent chatter about India entering the export market in the ensuing 2025-26 season, which has also impacted prices.
Claudiu Covrig, Senior Market Analyst & Founder, CovrigAnalytics, said that in Q4, all the eyes would shift from Brazil to India in anticipation of a higher crop and subsequent exports; however, he cautions that the prevailing international sugar prices might throw a spanner in the works.
“India will have surplus sugar; however, at the current prevailing international prices, exports from India will not be viable. India would need more than 20 to 20.5 cents at FOB for raw sugar and 21 cents for crystal sugar. If there is surplus sugar in the domestic market, the prices might crash to the MSP level; even then, Maharashtra sugar should fetch a price of 16.6 to 16.7 cents at FoB”.
Covrig said that unless the New York prices increase, Indian exports wouldn’t be remunerative. We might need some subsidies to make exports attractive; however, international laws don’t allow that anymore.
Commenting on Pakistan’s sugar import, Covrig said that the news about Pakistan’s sugar import created some initial interest in the international sugar market. “Pakistan said that they would import about 300,000 tons, but finally the quantity was reduced to 50,000 tons. Pakistan could face a sugar shortage in September and October 2025.
“They will have around 225,000 tons of sugar in October as per my calculation, which is very low (considering monthly consumption of 540-544k mt), stocks could be even lower if consumption proves to be higher. If they don’t import sugar, domestic prices will spiral out of control. Hence, they need to import 100,000 to 150,000 tons of sugar”, he added.
He expects Pakistan to start crushing sugar earlier in November, but there would still be a time lag between producing the sugar and adding it to the stock.
