The Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has released its third advance estimates of sugar production for the 2025–26 sugar season (SS 2025–26), following a comprehensive review conducted during the meeting of its Executive Committee held on 25th February 2026.
Satellite Based Assessment of Cane Area
ISMA procured high-resolution satellite imagery in early February’2026 to assess the sugarcane crop status across the country. The satellite images provided a clear and reliable estimate of:
- Area already harvested
- Balance cane area yet to be harvested
- Regional variations in crop progress
These findings were corroborated with extensive field visits, historical production trends, prevailing weather conditions, current yield and sugar recovery data, and projected performance during the remaining period of the crushing season.
State-wise Observations for major states
The Committee observed that sugarcane yield in Uttar Pradesh is lower than earlier projections. This is primarily attributable to the ongoing varietal replacement programme in the state, which has temporarily impacted productivity levels. However, sugar recovery in the state has been reported higher than last season.
In major sugarcane-growing regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka, it is observed that yields per unit area are lower than initially expected, despite reasonable sugar recovery levels.
This shortfall in yield has been linked to the early onset of flowering in sugarcane, which began across many cane growing regions from January onwards rather than being confined to only traditional river belts. Early flowering — often triggered by abnormal weather patterns, including excess rainfall during key growth phases — accelerates cane maturity and reduces biomass accumulation, resulting in lighter, less productive stalks.
Additionally, higher crush rate this year shortened the effective harvesting window, reducing field retention time and limiting late-stage biomass accumulation.
Revised Production Estimates for SS 2025–26
After detailed deliberations and analysis, ISMA has revised its production outlook as follows:
- Gross Sugar Production: ~324 lakh tons
- Estimated Sugar Diversion for Ethanol: ~31 lakh tons
- Net Sugar Production: ~293 lakh tons (12% higher than last year)
The sugar diversion estimate has been estimated based on state-wise ethanol supply allocations and the expected cane crushing during the balance season.
A detailed state-wise production table accompanies this release.
| S.No | States | 2024-25 | 3rd Advance estimates
2025 – 26 SS (Feb’2026) |
||
| Gross Sugar Production | Net Sugar Production | Gross Sugar Production | Net Sugar Production | ||
| (Lac tons) | |||||
| 1 | Uttar Pradesh | 101.16 | 92.91 | 98.5 | 92.5 |
| 2 | Maharashtra | 93.51 | 80.96 | 118.0 | 106.0 |
| 3 | Karnataka | 54.88 | 42.55 | 61.04 | 48.49 |
| 4 | Tamil Nadu | 6.89 | 6.83 | 8.29 | 8.20 |
| 5 | Gujarat | 8.94 | 8.92 | 8.76 | 8.73 |
| 6 | Others | 30.86 | 29.07 | 29.5 | 29.0 |
| Total Estimated Gross Sugar Production (BEFORE DIVERSION) | 296.25 | 324.09 | |||
| Estimated diversion towards ethanol | 35.01 | 31 | |||
| Net Sugar Production (AFTER DIVERSION) | 261.24 | 292.92 (~293) | |||
Projected sugar balance for 2025-26 SS
| S.No. | Particulars | 2025-26 (E)
(Figures rounded off in Lac tons) |
| A | Opening Stock as on 1st Oct’2025 | 50 |
| B | Gross sugar production during Season (Without diversion for ethanol) | 324 |
| C | Estimated sugar diversion towards ethanol | 31 |
| D | Net sugar production during Season (after diversion for ethanol) | 293 |
| E | Total Availability (A + D) | 343 |
| F | Internal Consumption | 283 |
| G | Exports | 7 |
| H | Closing Stock as on 30th Sept’2026 (E-F-G) | 53 |
Planting for 2026-27 season has reportedly improved over this year in Maharashtra and Karnataka. As a result, the 2026-27 crushing season appears to be promising, with an estimated opening stock of around 53 lakh tons by the end of the season, which is expected to be more than adequate.
