The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has released the first estimates of sugar production for the 2025–26 season.
In ISMA’s meeting on 31st July 2025, attended by representatives from sugar-producing states across the country, India’s gross sugar production (before diversion) is estimated to increase by 18%, reaching around 349 lakh tonnes, compared to 295 lakh tonnes produced in 2024-25.
Based on the satellite images procured in the latter part of June 2025, the total acreage under sugarcane in the country is estimated to be around 57.24 lakh hectares in 2025-26 SS against 57.11 lakh hectares in 2024-25 SS i.e. marginally higher than last year.
The images of the cane area, field reports regarding expected yield, sugar recovery, drawal percentage, impact of previous and current year’s rainfall, water availability in reservoirs, expected rainfall during SW monsoon 2025 and other related aspects were discussed in detail, ISMA said.
According to the sugar body, In Maharashtra, the cane area has increased to 14.93 lakh hectare for 2025-26 SS, against last year area of 13.82 lakh hectares i.e. up by approximately 8%. The overall crop quality this year is significantly better than last year. A higher proportion of plant cane and adequate water availability have contributed to this improvement. The abundant rainfall received in May was particularly beneficial, enhancing soil moisture and supporting early crop growth. Additionally, southwest monsoon rainfall between June 1 and July 31 has remained within the normal range, further supporting crop development. The forecast for the remainder of the 2025 southwest monsoon is also positive, reinforcing expectations of a healthy and promising crop. Additionally, reservoir levels in cane growing regions have better availability of water as compared to last year i.e. higher 30 – 40%.
These factors are likely to enhance cane productivity and improve sugar recovery from the standing crop, thereby positively impacting overall sugar output. The combination of better yields and increased cane area is expected to boost gross sugar production (before diversion) to 132.68 lakh tonnes against 93.34 lakh tonnes last year i.e. up by approximately 42%.
In Karnataka sugarcane area has increased by about 6% to 6.76 lakh hectares against 6.4 lakh hectares last year. Similar to Maharashtra, favorable rainfall and adequate water availability in reservoirs have improved standing crop quality significantly and therefore sugarcane yield and sugar recovery are expected to increase. Accordingly, gross sugar production (before diversion) is expected to increase by 23% to 66.19 lakh tonnes against 53.68 lakh tonnes produced in 2024-25 SS.
In Uttar Pradesh, cane area has declined by approximately 3% to 22.57 lakh hectares against 23.30 lakh hectares last season. However, the overall condition of the standing crop is much better than last year. Moreover, due to cane development initiatives at the mill level, including timely corrective measures and varietal replacements, the incidence of red rot and other disease infestations is expected to remain minimal in the 2025-26 sugar season and therefore cane yield and recovery are likely to recover. Accordingly, it is estimated that gross sugar production (before diversion) in the state would be 102.53 lakh tonnes against last year production of 100.74 lakh tonnes.
The sugar body said that minor changes in area / cane production are expected in the remaining states.
Following table indicating current year sugar production vis a vis estimated sugar production for 2025-26:
Sugar body said that although, it is still early to accurately predict crop production for the remainder of the season due to various factors—especially with the southwest monsoon only halfway through—ISMA traditionally releases preliminary sugar production estimates at this stage. These early estimates are intended to provide an initial indication of the likely direction of the crop. At present, the crop is still in its early stages, and many factors will influence its eventual quality and yield. Nonetheless, the office has conducted a detailed analysis based on the current situation and has outlined a few key observations in this release, assuming normal conditions going forward.
ISMA will reassess the crop condition in August / September and will come out with its 2nd preliminary estimate in September’2025.
