The International Sugar Organisation (ISO) in its Quarterly Market Outlook report reports a modest global surplus of 1.218 million tonnes, a slight decrease from the November surplus of 1.625 million tonnes.
For 2024-25, the deficit has widened to 3.464 mn tonnes, from 2.916 mn tonnes previously, driven by a higher US consumption estimate.
World Sugar Balance
(October/September, in mn tonnes, tel quel)
| 2025/26 | 2024/25 | Change/s
in mn tonnes in % |
||
| Production | 181.287 | 176.056 | 5.231 | 2.97 |
| Consumption | 180.069 | 179.520 | 0.549 | 0.31 |
| Surplus/Deficit | 1.218 | -3.464 | ||
| Import demand | 63.222 | 64.731 | -1.509 | -2.33 |
| Export availability | 64.324 | 64.796 | -0.472 | -0.73 |
| End Stocks | 93.300 | 93.184 | 0.116 | 0.12 |
| Stocks/Consumption ratio in % | 51.81 | 51.91 | ||
World production is seen at 181.287 mn tonnes, up 5.231 mn tonnes from last season, but only 0.192 mn tonnes above the 2023-24 total.
ISO says the spurt in production is due to increased production in India, Thailand and Pakistan, although the gains in the first two countries are smaller than the November update.
ISO projects world consumption at 180.069 mn tonnes in 2025-26, up 0.549 mn tonnes on the previous season, while 2023-24 consumption of 181.207 mn tonnes.
The Organisation said, “Shifts in trade dynamics remain a key market consideration. For 2025-26, global trade volumes are expected to remain steady with exports projected at 64.324 mn tonnes, down marginally from 64.796 mn tonnes last season.
The trade flow outlook for 2025-26 is in surplus, as import demand is estimated at 63.222 mn tonnes, up 0.260 mn tonnes since November”.
The Association states that by comparison, 2024-25 trade statistics show a negligible surplus of 0.065 mn tonnes, while the 2023-24 balance has also been reconciled.
“The ending stocks/consumption ratio for 2025-26 is estimated to fall to 51.81%. As has been the norm over the last year, the ISO also reports an adjusted stock total figure to reflect losses in the refining process, as well as stock updates from members. This adjustment pushes the global stock-to-consumption ratio to less than 42.4%, a 15-year low,” the report stated.
ISO said that the global fuel ethanol production reached an estimated 122.9 bn litres in 2025, up 3.1% from 2024, with output forecast to rise further to 127.7 bn litres in 2026. Global consumption kept pace at 122.7 bn litres, up 4.2%, and is projected to reach 125.3 bn litres in 2026. The US ethanol sector delivered record production of 62.5 bn litres and record exports of 8.3 bn litres in 2025, underpinned by abundant corn supplies.
“Brazil’s production declined to 33.2 bn litres as mills favoured record sugar allocations, but falling world sugar prices have since shifted parity in ethanol’s favour, with 2026 output forecast to rebound to 36.3 bn litres. India’s production surged 45% to a record 10.4 bn litres, though tender allocations for Ethanol Supply Year 2025-26 revealed that grain-based feedstocks now command the majority of volumes, with sucrose-based sources relegated to just 28% of allocations,” the report said.
