The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the southwest monsoon, which gained momentum this week, likely to cover most of northwest India, including Delhi, by June 25, few days ahead of its usual arrival around June 27.
The monsoon made an early entry into Kerala on May 24, marking its earliest onset since 2009, and rapidly advanced with the aid of strong low-pressure systems over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. By May 29, it had reached central Maharashtra and the northeast. However, from May 28 to June 10, its progress stalled, leading to heatwave conditions in central and northwest India due to the lack of rainfall.
The IMD now forecasts that the monsoon will cover the remaining parts of central and eastern India by June 18, and will likely spread across northwest India between June 19 and 25, with Delhi expected to receive it by June 22 or 23.
Despite the early onset, meteorologists caution that it does not necessarily mean higher-than-usual rainfall, as monsoon patterns are influenced by a variety of global and regional factors.
For the June-September period, the IMD’s seasonal forecast suggests above-normal rainfall (106% of the long-period average) for most areas, except for regions like Ladakh, parts of Himachal Pradesh, northeast India, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha. Certain areas of Punjab, Haryana, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu may experience below-normal rainfall.
