In a conversation with ChiniMandi regarding India’s sugar consumption pattern, Atul Chaturvedi, Executive Director, Shree Renuka Sugar Mills Ltd., said that sugar consumption on the strength of very low prices domestically may remain closer to 28.5 million tons or marginally lower on an approximate basis.
In a counter-argument to the current social media trend of vilifying sugar for health deficits, Chaturvedi said that sedentary lifestyle and lack of physical activity should be the primary concern, and not sugar.
He also talked about the skewed allocation of ethanol to molasses-based distilleries, which is against the basic policy doctrine of the Government and Niti Aayog vis-à-vis the ethanol blending programme.
Q. Has India’s per-capita sugar consumption structurally slowed down?
A. Historically, we were pencilling in growth in consumption of around 0.5 million tons ( Five lakh mts) on a per annum basis. However, a couple of years ago, when significant arbitrage was available between Indian values and international prices, we saw a lot of sugar being shipped to Bangladesh and other neighbouring countries. Some feel the volume could be closer to 0.7 million tons or 7 lakh mts. This slippage was erroneously factored in as domestic consumption on the basis of monthly dispatches from factories. This situation does not exist now, and we are back to normal times.
I would probably put the consumption increase around 2.5 to 3.0 lakh mts annually now.
Q. How has health awareness altered sugar intake patterns?
A. Sugar has been targeted by influencers and social media armchair commentators as being the culprit of the increase in diabetes in India. To my mind, sugar is not the culprit, but our sedentary lifestyle and lack of physical activities. If you are diabetic, then sugar consumption may increase sugar levels in the blood. Further, with the proliferation of alternate low calorie sweeteners, we see consumption coming down in the upper-middle and high class category in India.
Q. What is the expected sugar consumption in India in the current season?
A. My take would be that sugar consumption on the strength of very low prices domestically may remain closer to 28.5 million tons or marginally lower on an approximate basis. India is a price sensitive market, and low prices help improve consumption.
Ironically, our Hon. Prime Minister exhorts Indians to reduce sugar consumption, but on the other hand, the decision makers fight shy of increasing MSP ( minimum selling price).
Q. What initiatives should be taken at the mill and Government level to increase sugar consumption in India?
A. Sugar consumption or disposal should be increased by higher diversion to Ethanol as well as allowing exports over and above the 1.5 million tons permitted currently. These decisions may help in arresting the southward trajectory of domestic sugar prices in India during the peak crushing period.
Niti Aayog talked of sourcing 55% ethanol from the sugar sector and 45% from the grain sector. It’s a tragedy that now 28% is sourced from the sugar sector and 78% from the grain sector.
No wonder the sugar sector feels let down after having created adequate distillery capacity on the basis of Niti Aayog recommendation. Higher sugar production during the current year is a ‘Bane’ and not a ‘Boon’ for the industry.
