The US 2025-26 sugar supply is forecasted at 13.773 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 17,000 STRV from last month, as the decrease in production more than offset the increase in beginning stocks, according to the USDA’s sugar and sweeteners June outlook.
The report stated that sugar imports are virtually unchanged at 2.474 million STRV, the lowest level since 2007/08. The additional refined specialty tariff-rate quota (TRQ), which historically was filled by organic sugar imports, was not announced by USDA at the time of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
Sugar deliveries for food and beverage use are lowered 25,000 STRV to 12.125 million, matching the 2024-25 estimate, which was reduced this month by the same amount. With the other use component unchanged at 105,000 STRV, the 2025-26 total sugar use is lowered 25,000 STRV to 12.330 million. The corresponding stocks-to-use ratio is slightly up from 11.6 to 11.7 percent. Per the terms of suspension agreements, the initial 2025-26 Mexican Export Limit to achieve a 13.5-percent stocks-to-use ratio in the US balance sheet will be announced by the US Department of Commerce next month, using the July WASDE.
US domestic sugar production for 2025/26 is projected at 9.254 million STRV, down by 31,000 STRV from last month, largely due to the reduction in beet sugar production. The beet sugar output is reduced by 30,000 STRV to 5.150 million STRV, a 3-percent reduction from 2024/25, due to a small decrease in projected national sugarbeet yield.
As per the report, US 2025-26 cane sugar output is reduced by 1,000 STRV to at 4.104 million STRV but still reflects a 3-percent growth from 2024-25. The reduction is solely driven by Florida, where cane sugar production is lowered by 1,000 STRV to 2.016 million STRV, to match the initial processors’ forecast submitted to the USDA, Farm Service Agency, Sweetener Market Data (SMD) report. This 2.016 million STRV forecast for Florida reflects a 5-percent increase from the 2024-25 output that was negatively affected by weather-related factors—poor fall planting conditions, followed by drought in the spring and excessive rainfall during September–October 2024 after back-to-back hurricanes that also led to several days of standing water in the fields.
On the other hand, Louisiana’s 2025-26 cane sugar production is unchanged at 2.088 million STRV, reflecting 6 consecutive years of increase and 4 years of surpassing Florida. The main underlying assumption is a continuation of moderate acreage growth in Louisiana, the report further stated.
USDA in its sugar and sweeteners June Outlook report stated that Mexico’s 2025-26 sugar production is unchanged from last month at 5.094 million metric tons (MT), a 7-percent recovery from the weather-affected 2024-25 campaign. Mexico’s total sugar exports are projected down by 10,000 MT but exports to the United States (under the terms of the suspension agreements) remain at 572,489 MT. This volume was carried over from last month which was projected under the assumption that the US additional specialty TRQ (when announced) would be no lower than the 2024/25 level (231,485 STRV). The rest of the variables in the 2025-26 balance sheet are unchanged, except for a slight downward adjustment in beginning stocks.
