The USDA has kept its forecast unchanged for corn use in ethanol production for the 2025–26 marketing year, according to its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on February 10. The department also left its projection for average corn prices unchanged, Ethanol Producer Magazine reported.
Under the current outlook, the United States is expected to export more corn in 2025–26, while ending stocks are projected to decline. Corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, reflecting strong sales and shipments so far this season. Official data show solid overseas demand in January, indicating that total shipments between September and January are likely to exceed 1.3 billion bushels.
With no change in supply and higher overall usage, U.S. corn ending stocks were lowered by 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The average price received by farmers remains forecast at $4.10 per bushel.
The USDA also maintained its estimate that 5.6 billion bushels of corn will be used for fuel ethanol production in 2025–26. This compares with an estimated 5.436 billion bushels in 2024–25 and 5.489 billion bushels in the 2023–24 season.
On the global front, foreign corn production for 2025–26 is expected to be slightly lower, as a reduction in output in Mexico is largely offset by increased production in the European Union.
Corn export forecasts were raised for the United States but lowered for Ukraine. Import projections were increased for Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Lebanon, and Vietnam, while imports were reduced for the European Union.
Foreign corn ending stocks are projected to rise, mainly due to higher inventories in Ukraine and Iran, partially offset by lower stocks in Mexico. As a result, global corn stocks are forecast at 289.0 million tonnes, down 1.9 million tonnes from earlier estimates.
