The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that corn usage for ethanol production will remain steady in the 2025-’26 marketing year compared to the ongoing 2024-’25 marketing year. This projection was included in the agency’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released yesterday, May 12, reports Ethanol Producer Magazine.
The outlook for the 2025-’26 corn market points towards record levels of both supply and total usage, along with increased ending stocks. The USDA currently estimates the corn crop at 15.8 billion bushels, a 6% increase from the previous year, driven by expansions in both planted area and yield. The anticipated planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would mark the highest in over a decade. The yield projection of 181 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend, assuming typical planting progress and favorable summer growing conditions. Despite smaller beginning stocks partially offsetting the production increase, the USDA anticipates total corn supplies to reach 17.3 billion bushels.
Total U.S. corn usage for the 2025-’26 marketing year is projected to increase by more than 1% compared to the current year, fueled by higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels, while feed and residual use is expected to rise to 5.9 billion bushels due to larger supplies and anticipated lower prices. Notably, the USDA predicts that corn used for ethanol production in 2025-’26 will reach 5.5 billion bushels, unchanged from the estimated 5.5 billion bushels for 2024-’25. In the 2023-’24 marketing year, corn used for ethanol stood at 5.478 billion bushels.
Corn exports for 2025-’26 are forecast to increase from the previous year to 2.47 billion bushels, with lower prices expected to drive higher global trade. Export forecasts for competitor countries like Argentina and Ukraine are also higher year-over-year. However, for Brazil, continued domestic demand growth is expected to limit export expansion. The U.S. is projected to remain the world’s largest corn exporter, with a slight decline in global market share.
With total U.S. corn supply increasing more than usage, the 2025-’26 ending stocks are projected to rise by 385 million bushels from the previous year. If realized, these stocks would be the highest in absolute terms since the 2019-’20 marketing year, representing 11.6% of total use, up from 9.3% in the prior year. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 per bushel, a decrease of 15 cents.
Globally, corn production for 2025-’26 is forecast to reach a record 1.265 billion metric tons, with the largest increases expected for the U.S., Ukraine, and Argentina. Partially offsetting these increases are smaller crop projections for Tanzania and Canada. Larger anticipated planted areas are driving the increased corn production forecast for Argentina, while a return to trend yields and higher acreage are boosting production prospects for Ukraine. In Brazil, expansion in corn planted area is driving larger crop expectations.
World corn consumption is projected to rise by 2% to a record 1.274 billion metric tons, marking the second consecutive year where consumption exceeds production. Global corn imports are forecast to increase by 1%, driven by higher demand from several countries, including China, Vietnam, the EU, Venezuela, and Iran. Partially offsetting these increases are declines in imports for Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Turkey.
World corn ending stocks in 2025-’26 are estimated to fall by 9.5 million tons to 277.8 million tons, a level that, if achieved, would be the lowest since the 2013-’14 marketing year. Stocks in the major exporters of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. during 2025-’26 are forecast to increase, mainly due to a rise for the U.S. partly offset by a fall for Brazil.
