Brazil’s sugarcane crushing forecast downgraded on dry weather concerns

Sao Paulo: Brazil’s center-south sugarcane crushing for the 2024/25 season is anticipated to reach 622.1 million metric tons, according to agribusiness consultancy StoneX, as revealed on Wednesday, as per nasdaq.

This adjustment reflects a 1% reduction from the November forecast, attributing the decline to insufficient rainfall in both December and January.

Should this projection materialize, Brazil’s primary sugarcane region is poised to witness a 5.4% decline in crushing compared to the preceding 2023/24 season, which set a record for processed volume. The upcoming season, commencing in April 2024 is expected to present these challenges.

StoneX has revised its estimate for sugar production in the region, now projecting a record output of 43.1 million tons, a slight decrease from the earlier estimate of 43.2 million tons. However, this would still signify a 1% increase compared to the last season.

The anticipated surge in sugar output is attributed to farmers directing a larger proportion of their sugarcane towards sweetener production. StoneX notes that 52% of the sugarcane volume is expected to be allocated to sugar production, up from the previous forecast of 51.4% and the previous season’s allocation of 49%.

In terms of ethanol production, encompassing biofuel derived from corn, the total estimate for 2024/25 stands at 31.7 billion liters. This marks a reduction from the earlier forecast of 32.2 billion liters and reflects a 5.5% decrease from the previous cycle.

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