International sugar prices likely to rise in short term: Robin Shaw

The international sugar prices logged a moderate drop on Thursday morning. The July NY World sugar #11 was down -1.08% and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 was down -0.39%. Recently, on April 17, both the NY sugar and the London sugar dropped to 15-month and 14-month lows, respectively on expectations of improved sugar supply prospects in the international market.

A higher Brazilian sugar production estimate in the new season of 2024-25 both by Unica and Conab weighed down on the international sugar prices. The record heat wave conditions in Thailand, one of the largest sugar producers and exporters in the world, might adversely affect cane production and balance-out the overall sugar availability in the global scenario.

There are several other factors which are likely to influence the global sugar prices both in the short-term and long-term scenarios. Crude oil prices, better monsoon prospects in India, continuing flare-ups in West Asia etc.

In this context, it is crucial to get an expert view on the price outlook.

Robin Shaw, Sugar Analyst, Marex Spectron, feels that international sugar prices will rise in the short term. “I see prices (NY) held in a 19/22 c range. As sugarcane crops mature the probability is that some weather events will threaten the small surplus which we estimate, I would expect a rise in prices to say 24/25 c because world stocks are low. But if the weather is perfect, then the prices will subside towards 17 c,” Shaw said.

He expects sugar production in CS Brazil for the new season of 2024-25 at 41.5/42.5 MMT and sugar production in Thailand is expected at 10.5 MMT.


  1. Considering changing climate at global and Indian level,it may reduce production of rice,wheat ,oil seeds,pulses,sugar cane,etc. crops. Naturally, sugar production will hamper,however,sugar cane crop is hard than other crops and can survive in odd conditions than other crops. Considering many benefits of sugar cane crop, proven ,tested and most economical Indian sugar technology ,it is highly essential to increase production of sugar and co-products mostly double from 2025 onwards ,on priority for many job creations and farmers benefit. India must took lead to establish many sugar factories based on sugar cane crop at global level during next five years. This is one of the sure and most advantageous way for overall progress of India. This is a perfect suggestion for fast progress. Many Sweet Best Wishes. Dr. Patil A.S.


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here