According to latest reports, Rabobank estimates a global sugar supply and demand surplus of 1.8 million tonnes for the season 2019/20 (October-September) compared to a deficit projected in the report three months back. The change comes from the higher expected harvests especially in Brazil where the sugarcane harvest this year went quickly. Global consumption in the same season should decrease 1.4%.
For the season 2020/21, Rabobank estimates a deficit of 3,00,000 tons with gains in production being offset by a 1.7% recovery in global sugar demand. Production growth is expected mainly in Asia (especially India, Pakistan & China) as well as North America where the raw material will recover after a drought in the previous year. The consumption projection was slightly reduced given the second wave of Covid. Rabobank pointed out observations in the short term are evolution of exports from India, now that the subsidy program has been defined, the possible impacts of the La Nina phenomenon on Brazilian production and the potential beneficial effects of the increased vaccine availability against Covid on the recovery of the global economy.