Skymet forecasts normal 2024 Southwest monsoon, anticipates setting of La Nina

Skymet, India’s premier weather monitoring and agricultural risk management solutions provider, is anticipating a normal SouthWest monsoon for the year 2024. Speaking exclusively to ChiniMandi, President- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet, AVM G P Sharma said that Skymet’s initial forecast in January indicated the likelihood of a robust start to the monsoon, and finishing around the midway mark of the normal range, the range of normal rainfall being 96-104% of LPA (868.6mm).

Skymet further explained that the El Nino phenomenon, which contributed to the below-normal monsoon of 2023, is anticipated to weaken, while the emergence of La Nina, a climatic pattern triggered by Pacific Ocean cooling, is expected to support the monsoon during the latter part of the season.

Delving into specifics, Sharma addressed inquiries about the distribution of monsoon across different States and regions. He said that Skymet will unveil a comprehensive Monsoon forecast in the second week of April, offering detailed insights into expected precipitation patterns across the nation.

Despite the overall normalcy projected, Sharma cautioned that even amidst a favourable monsoon, certain areas may experience drier conditions or insufficient rainfall.

Touching upon the transition to La Nina conditions, Sharma said that Skymet’s latest assessment suggests that if historical trends hold, the current Super El Nino phase may take approximately six months to dissipate after reaching its peak, potentially transitioning to neutral conditions by May 2024.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Centre recently released its inaugural monsoon forecast for India, anticipating above-average rainfall during the primary monsoon season spanning from July to September.


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