Skymet predicts early monsoon coverage for second year, El Nino effects linger

Skymet in its latest La Nina update has said that the Monsoon current is expected to pick up pace and is likely to cover the entire country, ahead of its schedule, for the second year in a row.

The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is likely to drop below the threshold mark of 0.5°C, which is indicative of El Nino ending and commencement of ENSO neutral. However, the effects of El Nino are likely to linger for a few weeks, even after its devolution. This might trouble the weather conditions around the globe, including the Indian monsoon.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and most weather models suggest that IOD is likely to remain neutral during the monsoon season. “Indian Ocean Dipole is unlikely to underpin and collude constructively with La Nina. The chances of having a bumper monsoon remain irresolute, without the solid succour of MJO”, Skymet report stated.

Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department today said that Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of East Uttar Pradesh and some more parts of West Uttar Pradesh today. The conditions are favourable for further advance of the Monsoon into some more parts of West Rajasthan, Haryana-Chandigarh & Punjab and remaining parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu during the next 2-3 days.


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