Sugar consumption looks bullish; Sugarcane production in Maharashtra and Karnataka expected to fall

During Sugar and Ethanol India Conference 2024 (SEIC 2024), organised by ChiniMandi, the topic of Session IV was ‘Outlook on Indian Sugarcane Crop: 2024 and beyond’. The panellists were-

Mr. MSR Prasad, Sugar Analyst , Tropical Research Services
Mr. Nitin Tarate, Sugar Analyst, SUCDEN
Mr. Sachin Lakade, Sugar Analyst, Viterra India Pvt. Ltd.
Mr. Karamyog Singh – Mahindra Krish-e
Mr. Rahil Shaikh – MD, MEIR Commodities

The session was moderated by Mr. Yatin Wadhwana, Director, Gradient Commercial

Rahil Shaikh – MD, MEIR Commodities said that for Uttar Pradesh, it is safe to say that sugar production is expected at 11.5 MMT. The plant yields are better. However, the ground reality in Maharashtra and Karnataka is bad. Sugar production in Maharashtra next year is not looking good. In the current year, there is diversion of sugar for Gur production in Maharashtra. He said that he is bullish about sugar production in the country.

Mr. MSR Prasad, Sugar Analyst, Tropical Research Services said that the initial cane planting in Maharashtra is down by 12 to 18% in different districts of the State. For the next year, a lot will depend on weather conditions and monsoon rains in June, July and August. As of now, he expects area under cane cultivation in Maharashtra to fall by 21-23% and in Karnataka, area under cultivation to fall by 20%. However, it will be reviewed in June. He feels that the restrictions on ethanol production will continue next year as well, due to sugar production fall. As far as sugar consumption is concerned, there is an increase in indirect sugar consumption however, there is a moderation in direct sugar consumption in households. He expects sugar consumption at 28.3 MMT and 28.7 MMT in 2023-24 and 2024-25 respectively.

Mr. Nitin Tarate, Sugar Analyst, SUCDEN said there is significant drop in sugar production expected in Maharashtra and Karnataka. However, UP sugar production seems stable. For Maharashtra, the water level is too low, so farmers are worried. Sugar consumption in the current season is expected at 28.5 MMT and next year it is expected at 29 MMT.

Mr. Sachin Lakade, Sugar trader, Viterra India Pvt. Ltd. said that sugar production in the current season is expected at 31.5 to 32 MMT, however it depends on the ethanol policy. He said that if opening sugar stock is good, then the Government might allow some additional sugar diversion towards ethanol production. Sugar consumption is expected to be in the range of 28-29 MMT.

Mr. Karamyog Singh – Mahindra Krish-e said that the capacity is underutilised this season, hence the season is prolonged. Next year, sugarcane is expected to be 20 to 30% lower in Maharashtra. Ratoon is being carried forward.


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