SB (Sugar nearby active contract): Last week`s close was neutral. The longer NBC-Point is 18.64, which means the long-term trend remains bullish. This is in an uptrend since April 30, 2021. A weekly close below longer NBC-Point will change the trend to neutral from bullish. The shorter NBC-Point is 19.55, which means the short-term trend remains bullish.
A weekly close below this will change the trend to neutral from bullish. The bull-bear fight zone for the coming week is at 20.06. This is an important level for deciding who is in control for the week.
Weekly Support is 19.24-19.51. A weekly close below this range is bearish.
Weekly Resistance is 20.37-20.64. A weekly close above this range is bullish.
Cycle: This starts the 3rd week of a new 20 Weeks +/- 5 weeks primary cycle off the 18.49 low of September 28, 2021. The last week`s report mentioned, “Sugar closed near the important price line (green line in the chart), which is 20.45. This is also an important and strong resistance zone but this zone is getting weaker now. This is a new cycle and the first phase of any cycle is very bullish, which means there is still more juice on the upside before a corrective decline. A move above 20.45 will take it to the 21.34-21.59 area”. Sugar rallied above the important price line but failed to close above. This line is a strong resistance zone (green line in the chart below).
Sugar prices declined from that zone and closed near two important moving averages, which govern the sugar primary cycles. The technical indicators have moved into a neutral zone. Sugar must hold the low of 19.48 and resume the uptrend towards 21.36. A move below 19.04 will put this bullish cycle in danger and maybe prices will be down for many weeks.
Strategy: Book profit on 1/3rd long position around 21.30 +/- 0.30. Exit long below 19.25 or 19.04 depending on your risk appetite.
Legal Disclaimer: Trading in futures/options of any asset class carries a high level of risk, where traders can lose much more than the capital infused. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future performance. The support and resistance may represent favourable risk/reward places to buy/sell depending on the broader trend. These comments and trade recommendations are primarily for the traders/investors of futures contracts. They are provided mainly with “speculators” in mind. By its very nature, speculation means “willing to take risk of loss”. “Speculators” must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say, “investors.” That is why they are “speculators.”
Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way speculators become profitable is not so much by a high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling the amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. These comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day’s trading. There is no guarantee as to
future accuracy or profitability.
Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assumes any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s financial or commodity market decisions.
The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.chinimandi.com