SB (Sugar nearby active contract): Last week`s close was neutral turning bullish. The longer NBC-Point is 18.11, which means the long-term trend remains bullish. This is in an uptrend since April 30, 2021. A weekly close below longer NBC-Point will change the trend to neutral from bullish.
The shorter NBC-Point is 19.41, which means the short-term trend remains neutral. A weekly close below this will change the trend to bearish. The bull-bear fight zone for the coming week is at 19.07. This is an important level for deciding who is in control for the week.
Weekly Support is 18.43-18.62. A weekly close below this range is bearish.
Weekly Resistance is 19.56-19.75. A weekly close above this range is bullish.
Cycle: This starts the 13th week of an old 20 Weeks +/- 5 weeks primary cycle off the 16.19 low of Jan 26, 2021. The last week`s report mentioned, “The half-primary cycle low is expected
in the next 3-13 days. The price target for that low is 18.74-18.25.
As expected, Sugar fell and closed at the higher range of the expected price target 18.74-18.25. A half-primary cycle low is due anytime by September 17, if it is already not in. It has closed at an important cycle deciding moving average line, which is 18.80. The technical indicators are in the oversold zone on the daily chart. A close below 18.80 and bounced back again above that green line mentioned, in the chart, will confirm that low is in and prices will rally again. There are multiple supports at 18.45-18.34-18.25 (look in the chart)”. As expected, the sugar found support into the multiple support zone and bounced back. Usually, a market rallies for 3-13 days from such lows. Sugar also rallied sharply from that low and witnessed selling pressure. The technical indicators are suggesting another sell-off. A move below 19.02 will be the confirmation that prices will go further lower. Keep in mind the multiple support zones from 18.45-18.25. Below that sharp drop is expected
Strategy: Wait for long re-entry as mentioned in the report above. Follow the daily
Legal Disclaimer: Trading in futures/options of any asset class carries a high level of risk, where traders can lose much more than the capital infused. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future performance. The support and resistance may represent favourable risk/reward places to buy/sell depending on the broader trend. These comments and trade recommendations are primarily for the traders/investors of futures contracts. They are provided mainly with “speculators” in mind. By its very nature, speculation means “willing to take risk of loss”. “Speculators” must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say, “investors.” That is why they are “speculators.”
Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way speculators become profitable is not so much by a high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling the amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. These comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day’s trading. There is no guarantee as to
future accuracy or profitability.
Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assumes any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s financial or commodity market decisions.
The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.chinimandi.com